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The theory is that certain conditions lead to a predictable set of emotions in market players. To a great degree, technical traders are market psychologists who try to measure the level of greed and fear and how it will impact the market. It can be quite a difficult task at times simply because human beings are not always very predictable or even rationale.
We also have to deal with our own biases and subjectivity, and, of course, surprise news events can shift market psychology in a matter of minutes. Although it is not perfect, technical analysis can provide an excellent framework for traders as they navigate the market. Unfortunately, there are times when the general ideas behind technical analysis just don't work very well at all. One of the things, which I've discussed extensively for quite a while, is the theory that V-shaped bounces should not be expected.
The theory here is very simple.
When market players are caught in a market breakdown they suffer anxiety and will look for opportunities to escape the situation as we bounce so that they can cut their losses. When stocks move back up and a trader is closer to breaking even, that trader Babylonian Trading System more likely to look for an exit.
That is what overhead resistance is all about. It is the inclination of people to try to escape stressful situations with a minimum amount of damage. For some reason, that basic investor psychology hasn't been very apparent in this market for quite some time.
Once we start to bounce, we tend to keep on going and don't struggle much as we move through overhead resistance. One theory for this is that computerized trading is overriding the normal psychology.
Algorithms are written to buy rather than sell at obvious resistance points, causing short squeezes and momentum chases and leading to some big profits for the computerized trading industry.
I'm oversimplifying this to a great degree, but with two-thirds of the markets' volume being generated by computers, it isn't hard for them to push us in any direction they want, regardless of overall market psychology. I believe that is a SNE SHARE OPTION TEHINGUD part of why I hear so many complaints from traders about how difficult it is to navigate this market.
The human emotions that drove us just don't matter much, which gives the action a very random feel. We can always guess what other traders might do, but trying to guess how a computer is programmed is a lot tougher.
With that in mind, we are once again at a familiar juncture. The market has broken down, and we are trying to bounce back. The bulls actually faltered in their drive for another V-shaped move yesterday afternoon, which is a change of pace, so maybe the market finally is undergoing a change in character.
The problem is that it has been a losing trade for so long to bet against this market that you have to be hesitant, even when the index charts look as poor as they do now. Based on standard analysis of the major index charts, there is no good reason to be very bullish here. The gap on Monday morning begs to be filled eventually, and the failure yesterday afternoon shows that resistance levels did matter.
The problem is that we just don't know if the machines SNE SHARE OPTION TEHINGUD going to overrun this rather clear pattern yet again. The best approach for dealing with that issue is to wait to see what happens and then be quick to react. Another V-shaped bounce would be a bad bet based on standard technical analysis, but if the machines really are in control of this market, then we certainly have to be much more open to the possibility.
Futures were looking weak very early this morning but have gained steam steadily, and we now have a positive open shaping up. Gold continues its rampage higher.
Overseas markets are mostly positive, and the worries and concerns about Europe are on the back burner at the moment. Other news: FUQI Analyst comments: PM
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